Publication Success in 3 Top Field Journals

RSE Publication Success

Dr John Tang, Professor John Stachurski and Professor Markus Brueckner have recently had each of their papers accepted into three leading field journals. Find out the details below.

John Tang

"Upstart Industrialization and Exports: Evidence from Japan, 1880-1910”
Journal of Economic History

Abstract: Between 1880 and 1910, Japanese exports increased volume, changed composition, and shifted from leading industrialized countries toward poorer Asian neighbors. Using a new dataset disaggregated by product and trade partner for the universe of Japanese exports, we find extensive margins accounted for 30 percent of export growth, with trade costs and market size associated with successful market entry. There was also considerable persistence in maintaining market presence and exit was rare. These stylized facts provide insight into both the country's economic development, as reflected in its exported products, as well as the demand conditions of its trade partners. 

Read the paper here

John Stachurski

"Volatile Capital Flows and Financial Integration: The Role of Moral Hazard”
Journal of Economic Theory

Absract: We study a model in which income and capital flows between countries are jointly determined in a world economy with integrated financial markets. In a setting that combines risky entrepreneurial activity with moral hazard, we find that a shift from autarky to financial integration leads to boom-bust cycles in capital flows, output and consumption. Moral hazard causes cycles because financial intermediaries incentivize effort by insisting entrepreneurs take an equity share in their own projects. The size of this stake rises with wealth, discouraging entrepreneurship and inhibiting capital formation. The reverse is true when wealth falls, generating cycles.

Read the paper here. 

Markus Brueckner

Professor Brueckner recently published a series of papers on the topic of how income inequality is related to economic growth. The papers are an outcome of a joint research project with Daniel Lederman (Deputy Chief Economist for the MENA region, World Bank), Era Dabla-Norris (Division Chief of the Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund), and Mark Gradstein (Professor of Economics, Ben Gurion University).

“Inequality and Economic Growth: The Role of Initial Income” 
Journal of Economic Growth

Abstract: We estimate a panel model where the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth depends on countries’ initial incomes. Estimates of the model show that the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth is significantly decreasing in countries’ initial incomes. Results from instrumental variables regressions show that in Low Income Countries transitional growth is boosted by greater income inequality. In High Income Countries inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional growth. For the median country in the world, that in the year 2015 had a PPP GDP per capita of around 10000USD, IV estimates predict that a 1 percentage point increase in the Gini coefficient decreases GDP per capita growth over a 5-year period by over 1 percentage point; the long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is around − 5%.

Read the paper here.

“The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN”. 

Abstract: We present instrumental variables estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and GDP per capita. The increase in GDP per capita that ASEAN economies experienced during 1970–2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class in these countries. Econometric model estimates show that the impact of a rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on initial levels of GDP per capita. In the majority of ASEAN countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to GDP per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth for levels of ASEAN economies' GDP per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of GDP per capita a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth of GDP per capita in ASEAN. We show that investment is an important channel through which the income share of the middle class affects economic growth.

Read the paper here.

“National Income and Its Distribution”

Abstract: This paper revisits the effect of national income on distributional equality. Although the link between the two has featured prominently in the literature, a causal effect has been difficult to pin down due to the endogeneity of these variables. We use plausibly exogenous variations in the incomes of countries’ trading partners weighted by the level of trade flows, and international oil price shocks, as instruments for within-country variations in countries’ real GDP per capita. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, our instrumental variables regressions show that increases in national income have a significant moderating effect on income inequality: a 1 % increase in real GDP per capita reduces the Gini coefficient by around 0.08 percentage points on average. We document that education is one possible channel that mediates this relationship, and explore the implications of our findings for the welfare effect of national income growth.

Read the paper here.

Updated:   12 June 2018 / Responsible Officer:  CBE Communications and Outreach / Page Contact:  College Web Team